Global warming is caused by Earth's Energy Imbalance.
There are two things we can do to reduce Earth's Energy Imbalance: (1) reduce greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere, and (2) reflect more of the Sun’s incoming radiant energy back out to space before it warms the Earth. (In theory one might increase thermal radiant energy sent by Earth out to space but this is not presently achievable.) The challenge of the century is to find ways to do both as fast as cost-effectively possible with consideration of equity and risks.
Successful efforts to reduce Earth’s energy imbalance will benefit large numbers of people on Earth. Philanthropists, governments, and people all over the planet are willing to pay for low risk, equitable interventions that are cost-effective - that reduce damages by more than they cost. The most efficient way to achieve this is with markets to pay for the most cost-effective interventions to reduce global warming.
Good work is being done to reduce greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere; much more needs to be done and much faster. Reducing use of carbon fuels addresses the root cause of human-induced climate change, but our global dependency on carbon prevents fast enough action. More immediate action addressing Earth's energy imbalance with solar reflectivity interventions can reduce warming, both locally and globally, while long-term solutions are developed and implemented.
Subsidies for Increasing Earth's Reflectivity
Understanding how subsidies for increasing Earth's reflectivity are determined begins with understanding that Earth's energy imbalance is measured in units of power as megawatts. If we can send out to space more of the megawatts coming from the sun, the imbalance will be reduced.
On average over a year, each surface on Earth reflects back to space a measurable percent of incoming solar energy. This is the “reflectivity” of that surface. Also, the annual average amount of incoming solar energy is known for each location on Earth. If the energy is all reflected (100% reflectivity), the portion of that energy that would make it back out to space through the atmosphere is known. This is the reflectivity “potential”, which is stated in watts per square meter. If we multiply the potential by the reflectivity, we get the annual average number of watts per square meter presently reflected to space from the surface, called the “outsolation”. You can look up these numbers for any surface on Earth larger than about 15 meters minimum dimension using our Global Reflectivity Map tool.
If we multiply the present outsolation in watts per unit area by the area of the surface (which we can measure from satellite images), we get the present annual average number of watts reflected to space from that surface. This is usually stated in megawatts (one million watts). If the reflectivity is enhanced by an intervention, the number of reflected megawatts increases. Using satellite data, Reflective Earth measures this increased number of reflected megawatts from an intervention (and subtracts any decrease in thermal emissions caused by the intervention). If the increased net emissions to space is maintained for one year, the additional amount of solar energy that has been reflected due to the intervention is that number of additional megawatt years. Or, if the reflectivity degrades and we know the amount of degradation by subsequent remeasurements, we can compute the reduced number of additional megawatt years reflected. The additional megawatt years of energy sent to space is the unit of energy for determining how much subsidy should be paid.
Reflective Earth has developed technology to verify effectiveness of some surface reflectivity interventions and measure the additional megawatt years sent to space resulting from the intervention. Each reflectivity intervention can be monitored over time for changes (enhancements or degradation), always being quantitatively assessed in megawatts.
Using satellite data, Reflective Earth measures this increased number of reflected megawatts from an intervention (and subtracts any decrease in thermal emissions caused by the intervention). If the increased net emissions to space is maintained for one year, the additional amount of solar energy that has been reflected due to the intervention is that number of additional megawatt years. Or, if the reflectivity degrades and we know the amount of degradation by subsequent remeasurements, we can compute the reduced number of additional megawatt years reflected. The additional megawatt years of energy sent to space is the unit of energy for determining how much subsidy should be paid.
We have philanthropists offering to pay subsidies for new, white reservoir covers. Click here to view our protocol for verifying effectiveness of reservoir cover reflectivity interventions.
Estimating value to the planet of each additional megawatt year sent to space
The economic value of reflecting to space an additional megawatt for a year to reduce economic losses from global warming, not including local benefits or consideration of non-economic losses, can be computed by dividing the estimated increase in loss in per capita income due to global warming from 2023 to 2024 by Earth’s present energy imbalance in megawatts.
An estimate of the value of reflecting an additional megawatt to space for one year has been published. However, the prices to be paid are set by market actors, which are philanthropists, governments, individuals, and corporations. Reflective Earth receives tax deductible donations for this purpose and spends 100% of these donations on subsidies for interventions as determined by effectiveness.
Practical Reflectivity Interventions that, with a subsidy, can be cost effective
At this time, there are four viable types of reflectivity interventions that can be cost effective and can be measured for effectiveness in additional megawatt years so that subsidies can be paid:
1 Reflective covers on water reservoirs to also reduce evaporation and growth,
2 Reflective shade structures over asphalt parking lots,
3 Reflective coatings on asphalt roads, playgrounds, or parking lots,
4 New reflective layers on large roofs or on many roofs in a neighborhood.
Example of possible steps for planning, construction, measurement, sale, and payment
(1) The owner or operator of a location for an intervention identifies a boundary of a large surface that is presently dark and has been dark for a long time and proposes to make it bright white at low cost, such as by painting asphalt or erecting a reflective cover on a water reservoir.
(2) An independent Verifier, such as Reflective Earth, can then determine the present annual average reflectivity, the number of years that this surface has been in that state (to be sure the intervention will be additional), and the maximum number of additional megawatt years that could practically be achieved with the proposed project.
(3) A description of the proposed project may be submitted to a prospective Buyer for the potential additional megawatt years sent to space. A price per megawatt year is negotiated, perhaps with an auction.
(4) The Buyer may pay the price to an escrow.
(5) If the project is not implemented within a predetermined time period such as one year, the money may be returned to the Buyer.
(6) If the intervention has a predicable dissipation curve and there is low enough risk that something will happen to defeat the intervention, all funds are disbursed upon verification of its immediate effectiveness and prediction of its future effectiveness, part being returned to the Buyer if the effectiveness is less than hoped for.
(7) For interventions that could have variable effectiveness over time, starting when reflectivity changes begin, Reflective Earth periodically verifies the additional number of megawatts gained or lost and payments are made annually.
To ensure there is no incentive for Reflective Earth to overstate the number of additional megawatt years for an Intervention and there is no appearance of such an incentive, compensation for verification services is never affected by the number of megawatts measured. The costs of Reflective Earth’s services are funded from other sources.